For
the last few months, there has been a serious stand-off at Doklam
between the Indian and Chinese armies. Doklam is a small region of
Bhutan, which has friendly relations with China and India over the last
many years. While the Indian and Chinese armies have almost come within
100 yards of each other at Doklam, there are no untoward incidents that
have been reported from the region. The fear, however,is that this could
escalate at the slightest provocation and could deteriorate into a
full-fledged war between India and China. The last time the 2 nations
had fought a full-fledged war was in 1962. There are a few basic things
to understand here…
Doklam is a disputed area between Bhutan and China…
To
be fair, Doklam is a disputed area between Bhutan and China. Bhutan is a
small nation sandwiched between China in the North and India in the
south. Over the last many years, Bhutan has held on to its preferred
relationship with India. When the Tibet problem arose in 1959, India had
promised to protect Bhutan and the latter had accepted the same.
However, over the last few years Bhutan and China have expanded their
trade relations substantially. The Doklam standoff started when China
decided to extend its paved road closer to the disputed area which India
felt was a direct assault on its security and sovereignty. As a result,
the Indian army has disrupted the Chinese building of roads in that
area. While both China and India have stood their ground, there are 3
reasons why this is unlikely to precipitate into a full-fledged war.
It is not army strength but the theatre of war that matters…
The
Chinese army did inflict losses on India in 1962 but that may not be
too relevant here. Both the nations have grown their armies, air power
and naval prowess substantially over the last few years. Both nations
realize that in this war the theatre will matter more than anything
else. The border between India and China stretches for more than 4000 km
and in most places the borders stretch across highly in hospitable
sectors. Any war will be prolonged resulting in losses for both sides
and is most likely to be inconclusive. Across the 4000 km Indo-China
border, there are areas where India has a positional advantage and there
are places where China has the same.
Also,there
will be multiple theatres and the war will be fought on land borders,
through air and in the sea. For both the nations, war appears to be an
impractical situation. China has had two bad experiences when it
wrongly chose its theatre of war. China faced an embarrassment against
India in 1967 when it was forced to withdraw from the Nathu La Pass and
the Chola Pass near Sikkim. Similarly,China’s 1979 invasion of North
Vietnam also provided to be a disaster. In both cases, the theatre of
war was unfavourable to the Chinese.
China will not want to lose its trade edge with India…
India
runs an annual trade deficit of $62 billion with China. In fact,China
alone accounts for more than 60% of India’s annual trade deficit and
that is an advantage which China will be unwilling to cede. India has
already shown resistance in many ways. For example,India has already
imposed anti-dumping duties on many Chinese products and that could only
heighten if the stand-off continues.China is already under pressure
from the US to compress its trade surplus with the US and it will be
pointless for China to risk retaliation from India. Also, India is an
economy growing at 7-8% per annum on a GDP base of nearly $2.5 trillion.
No country in the right frame of mind will want to lose out on such a
market.
Any Indo-China war will not remain a regional war any longer…
Any
war between India and China is likely to draw in more number of
participants. Willingly or unwillingly; major military powers like the
US, Russia, Israel and Japan are likely to get involved. China is
already hinting at its expansionist tendencies in the South China Sea
and most of the countries like Vietnam and Philippines will also get
involved. In short, the war will not be limited to India and China
alone. In fact, it is more likely that global powers will try and
prevail upon both the nations to opt for a more conciliatory approach.
The
bottom-line is that for India and for China the economic and strategic
stakes are just too high. Both the economies are trying to build a
growth model in the aftermath of a prolonged slowdown and war will be an
unnecessary distraction. Both the countries realize that it is more
important to display strength rather than to fight an actual war. What
really began with a bang is most likely to end in a whimper!
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