The market round table

Budget Announcement	Budget Impact
Ø  Monetary Policy maintained status quo on repo rates at 6%	Ø  This was largely along expected lines as inflation was higher and global bond yields are also heading higher Ø  The MPC’s guidance in excess of 5.1% inflation is indicative of the bottoming out of yields and prospects of rate hikes
Ø  Air India reported 50% higher net losses at Rs.5700 crore in FY-17	Ø  This rise in losses was due to a provision of Rs.1150 crore on account of expired and unapproved SFI scrip Ø  This could have a bearing on the valuation of Air India when it goes in for strategic stake sale this fiscal year
Ø  ACC doubled its profits for the quarter ended December 2017	Ø  This performance was largely on the back of ACC’s focus on the higher-margin premium cement business Ø  This is appreciable considering that the housing market is quite tepid in the aftermath of RERA implementation
Ø  Brent crude prices fell below $65/bbl from a higher level of $71/bbl	Ø  Despite the OPEC supply cut the prices of oil have been falling due to the expectations of US shale supply Ø  India will be worried about a bounce back in oil prices as it puts stress on the Balance of Payments
Ø  Vedanta to incur losses of Rs.2000 crore due to mining license cancellation	Ø  It may be recollected that the  Supreme Court had cancelled all the mining licenses worth 20 million tonnes in Goa Ø  Vedanta with nearly 5.5 million tonnes capacity in Goa will face losses to the tune of Rs.2000 crore
Ø  ONGC may sell its stakes in IOCL and GAIL to fund acquisitions	Ø  ONGC will be paying $5.5 billion to acquire government’s 51.1% stake in HPCL Ø  This stake sale plan indicates that more such stake buys by ONGC may be lined up this year for oil sector consolidation
Ø  FPIs may now start preferring the France and the Netherlands route	Ø  With 10% tax on LTCG applicable to FPIs too, most FPIs may not prefer Singapore and Mauritius due to treaty restrictions Ø  Routing through France and the Netherlands will still give them the hedge against paying tax on LTCG
Ø  India doubles the import duty on sugar from 50% to 100%	Ø  This is because due to the fall in global prices of sugar, mills are finding it hard to pay higher prices to cane farmers Ø   Global sugar prices are down by over 17% since October 2017 and that is taking its toll on sugar companies
Ø  Equity markets see wealth destruction of Rs.10 trillion since budget	Ø  The concerns over the impact of tax on LTCG was only one side of the story in this fall Ø  The fall was also largely in sympathy with global markets as global bond yields continue their upward spree
Ø  India gets tough on crypto currencies with follow-up action	Ø  The IT department has already sent notices to over 1 lakh persons in India who have not reported crypto profits Ø  In the budget the FM had emphasized that India will not consider crypto currencies like Bitcoin as legal tender
Ø  Motilal Oswal AMC sees Rs30,000 crore of domestic money in the sidelines	Ø  This money was more likely to come in after the 2000 points correction in the Sensex made valuations attractive Ø  Many volatile and high beta stocks have corrected very sharply and this could just be the opportunity to re-enter
Ø  Jerome Powell officially takes over as the new Fed Chairperson	Ø  He replaces Janet Yellen, who had steered the Fed through a very difficult and tumultuous time period Ø  Growth is back in the US and unemployment is below 5% paving the road for rate hikes during the year
Ø  Tata Motors missed its street estimates in the December quarter	Ø  Though net profits were 13 times higher on a low base, JLR disappointed on its global sales numbers Ø  JLR contributes over 85% of Tata Motors top-line and that segment grew at just about 3.5% putting pressure on TAMO
Ø  Sterlite plans to invest $10 billion in the Indian power business	Ø  Sterlite is buying out the stake held by Standard Chartered PE Fund in its transmission business Ø  Indian government is now permitting private players into the lucrative T&D business too, apart from power generation
Ø  Insurers raise doubts about the NHP numbers in the Budget	Ø  Insurers estimate that the premium assumption should be much higher for the National Health Policy (NHP) Ø  The largest welfare measure intends to cover 10 crore families in India with a medical cover of Rs.5 lakhs per family
Ø  Coal India reported 4% rise in profits at Rs.3005 crore for the Dec quarter	Ø  This thrust to higher profits largely came from better control over the operating expenses of the company Ø  This was largely because the excise duty stood abolished after the shift to the Goods & Service Tax model
Ø  SEBI looking into regulatory lapses by Singh brothers in Fortis case	Ø  This follows media reports that the Singh Brothers had taken $78 million (Rs.500 crore) out of the company sans approval Ø  The funds transfer had happened through Fortis Healthcare investing the money in group companies of Singh Brothers
Ø  SEBI Chief assured of rules on crypto currencies coming soon	Ø  The rules for crypto currencies has become more important after the FM budget announcement Ø  Crypto Currencies are based on block chain technology and can actually undermine monetary policy
Ø  Exchanges agree to ban globally listed domestic index futures	Ø  NSE will be taking the lead by de-licensing Nifty futures trading on the SGX, with a 6 month notice period Ø  The government has expressed concerns over the off-shoring of Indian market volumes to other markets
Ø  SBI posts a surprise loss of Rs.2416 crore for the Dec quarter	Ø  This sharp loss was due to worsening NPA situation and a sharp fall in treasury income Ø  There was a bad loan divergence of Rs.23,000 crore largely due to the integration of subsidiaries of SBI
Ø  Israel launched attacks on Syrian and Iranian positions	Ø  This escalation of tensions came after Iranian drones had allegedly encroached into Israeli airspace Ø  Iran funding separatist groups in their struggle against the state of Israel and that adds to West Asian tensions

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